Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x90f0…9526 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 356d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$18 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
other 26% −$5
finance 10% −$1
crypto 9% +$2
sports 3% $0
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +157.3% +132.8% 100% 100% +104.1%
≤30d 4 +157.3% +132.8% 100% 100% +104.1%
≤90d 4 +157.3% +132.8% 100% 100% +104.1%
all 16 +28.9% +16.7% 62% 50% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 50% -3.2%
10% +5.5% 38% -12.5%
15% -4.7% 25% -20.9%
20% -14.0% 25% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +126% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)16 / 62
History coverage356d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 22¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +156%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +335%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Jun 15 $11 +$12 +113%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1 +$4 +373%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 22 $5 +$1 +12%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Jan 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 19 $50 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.01 · official $98.64 (match) · 74 history records