Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90f1…72c6 other 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,747 (+31%) realized +$14,810 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%69W / 275L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$745
7 days+$310
14 days−$219
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$7,674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.5% -17.2% 30% 30% +21.2%
≤30d 39 -40.1% -45.8% 18% 18% -9.2%
≤90d 301 -41.9% -47.4% 13% 12% -11.9%
all 344 -5.2% -14.3% 20% 18% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 18% +4.1%
10% -22.5% 18% -5.9%
15% -30.0% 17% -15.0%
20% -36.8% 16% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +28% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$527 vs −$104 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$14,810
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses69 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)344 / 346
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$137
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $98 +$265 +270%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $197 +$545 +277%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $254 −$234 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $62 +$38 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$32 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $23 −$10 -43%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $160 −$160 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $255 +$240 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $99 +$374 +378%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $180 +$315 +175%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $44 −$41 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $117 −$22 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $118 −$90 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $608 +$143 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $85 −$82 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $113 −$109 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $249 −$166 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $9 −$8 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $363 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $742 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 3500 history records