trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -22.7% | -30.1% | 40% | 20% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -12.6% | -21.0% | 50% | 38% | -4.0% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +11.5% | +0.9% | 68% | 58% | +5.6% |
| all | 20 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 65% | 55% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.4% | 55% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -9.9% | 30% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -18.6% | 15% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -26.6% | 15% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 90¢ | $1,200 | $1,439 | +$239 (+20%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | $400 | $425 | +$25 (+6%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 73¢ | $200 | $197 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | Yes | 59¢ | 62¢ | $70 | $73 | +$3 (+5%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 90¢ | $40 | $54 | +$14 (+35%) |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 83¢ | 87¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 (+5%) |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 69¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-5%) |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 61¢ | 52¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-13%) |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 2¢ | $100 | $3 | −$97 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$3 | -16% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $100 | −$18 | -18% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $200 | +$25 | +13% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Jun 15 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 09 | $200 | +$42 | +21% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 06 | $40 | +$9 | +22% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | May 28 | $30 | −$9 | -30% |
| Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? | Apr 27 | $25 | +$3 | +14% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Apr 21 | $10 | −$4 | -40% |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | Apr 18 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Apr 17 | $200 | −$6 | -3% |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Apr 17 | $100 | +$60 | +60% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Apr 14 | $100 | +$30 | +30% |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t | Apr 13 | $50 | +$26 | +52% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Apr 10 | $100 | +$14 | +14% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Apr 10 | $100 | +$27 | +27% |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Mar 24 | $100 | +$32 | +32% |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Mar 24 | $29 | +$37 | +127% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 16 | $1,545 | −$258 | -17% |