Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
90 0x90f5…1384 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$210 (+10%) realized +$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$369
14 days+$436
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$56
sports 33% +$235
crypto 2% +$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.1% -0.3% 65% 55% +49.7%
≤30d 58 +15.3% +4.3% 55% 48% +7.3%
≤90d 58 +15.3% +4.3% 55% 48% +7.3%
all 58 +15.3% +4.3% 55% 48% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 48% +7.3%
10% -5.7% 40% -2.9%
15% -14.8% 38% -12.3%
20% -23.1% 34% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 70
History coverage16d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $107 +$86 +80%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $128 +$162 +126%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $96 +$60 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$3 -64%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$45 +148%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $78 +$7 +9%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$14 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$18 +87%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $65 −$15 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$41 +100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +521%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 +$26 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $93 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 14¢ $10 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $88 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 30h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $290 40h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 40h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 41h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 41h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 42h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 42h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 42h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $81 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 42h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end BUY 2¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.66 · official $149.40 · 123 history records