Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x90f6…d183 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$1,216 (+9%) realized +$1,224 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,006
7 days+$2,006
14 days+$1,308
30 days+$1,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +55.8%
≤30d 4 +14.9% +4.0% 75% 75% +11.1%
≤90d 7 -34.3% -40.6% 43% 43% -12.4%
all 33 +24.2% +12.4% 76% 73% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 73% -0.6%
10% +1.6% 55% -10.1%
15% -8.2% 45% -18.8%
20% -17.2% 24% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$391 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$1,103
Realized+$1,224
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage225d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Iva Jovic 74¢ 74¢ $1,110 $1,103 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,649 +$1,119 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,129 +$887 +79%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro Jun 14 $963 −$963 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2,001 +$265 +13%
Knicks vs. Kings Mar 30 $273 −$273 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Mar 30 $590 −$590 -100%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 30 $680 −$680 -100%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 30 $310 +$153 +49%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jan 29 $311 +$127 +41%
Kings vs. Knicks Jan 28 $54 +$9 +16%
Pelicans vs. Thunder Jan 28 $213 +$35 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $191 +$82 +43%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 11 $502 +$334 +67%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jan 08 $356 +$146 +41%
Suns vs. Rockets Jan 06 $260 +$96 +37%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $212 −$212 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Dec 31 $329 −$329 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $243 +$86 +35%
Portland Pilots vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Dec 23 $200 +$44 +22%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 13 $78 +$27 +35%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 13 $126 +$324 +257%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 07 $359 +$141 +39%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 01 $72 +$8 +11%
Devils vs. Flyers Nov 23 $178 +$192 +108%
Flames vs. Wild Nov 23 $64 −$44 -67%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nov 18 $363 +$27 +8%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zv Nov 14 $88 +$12 +14%
Utah vs. Senators Nov 11 $41 +$39 +96%
Kraken vs. Stars Nov 11 $65 +$35 +54%
Stanford vs. North Carolina Nov 09 $73 +$27 +37%
Washington vs. Wisconsin Badgers Nov 09 $22 +$78 +354%
Kennesaw State vs. New Mexico State Nov 09 $79 +$21 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $104 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $22 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $261 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $51 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $378 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $32 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $74 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $57 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $9 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $49 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $24 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $48 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $331 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $1,319 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $349 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $2 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $13 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $64 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $9 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $127 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $382 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $182 36h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $2,001 9d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro BUY Victoria Mboko 64¢ $963 29d
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Brunno Ferreira 40¢ $150 106d
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Brunno Ferreira 40¢ $530 106d
Nets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 58¢ $590 142d
Rockets vs. Hawks BUY Rockets 67¢ $144 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,102.51 · official $1,102.51 (match) · 127 history records