Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x90f7…2501 world 386 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,913 (+6%) realized +$13,470 · open +$4,443
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%249W / 96L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$752per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$15,421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,962
14 days+$1,996
30 days+$1,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$978
other 12% +$3,506
economics 10% +$3,124
politics 5% +$4,813
sports 3% +$1,378
crypto 1% +$772
finance 0% +$176
tech 0% +$121
culture 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +53.7% +39.0% 100% 100% +43.1%
≤30d 23 -16.5% -24.4% 52% 26% -2.5%
≤90d 208 +8.2% -2.1% 71% 33% -10.4%
all 345 +16.4% +5.3% 72% 31% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 31% -5.8%
10% -4.8% 19% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -14.0% 12% -23.1%
20% -22.4% 10% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$561) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$180 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$15,421
Realized+$13,470
Unrealized+$4,443
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses249 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions42
Markets (closed)345 / 386
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$752
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $3,686 $6,963 +$3,277 (+89%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,915 $1,953 +$38 (+2%)
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 78¢ $1,205 $1,912 +$707 (+59%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 72¢ 67¢ $711 $662 −$49 (-7%)
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $351 $350 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $272 $277 +$5 (+2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $236 $257 +$21 (+9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 39¢ $102 $234 +$132 (+129%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 67¢ 99¢ $142 $208 +$67 (+47%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $189 $192 +$3 (+2%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $168 $187 +$19 (+11%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 75¢ 77¢ $180 $185 +$5 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $173 $180 +$7 (+4%)
Another US debt downgrade before 2027? No 58¢ 76¢ $115 $149 +$35 (+30%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 78¢ 94¢ $121 $147 +$26 (+21%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No 86¢ 96¢ $109 $122 +$13 (+12%)
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No 60¢ 78¢ $93 $121 +$28 (+30%)
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 79¢ 94¢ $101 $119 +$19 (+18%)
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $96 $111 +$14 (+15%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 75¢ 90¢ $88 $106 +$18 (+20%)
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? No 82¢ 77¢ $110 $104 −$6 (-6%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? No 92¢ 98¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+7%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+5%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 67¢ 86¢ $67 $86 +$19 (+28%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $79 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $354 +$206 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,877 +$1,718 +60%
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Jun 11 $63 +$16 +26%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Jun 11 $73 +$18 +24%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 09 $571 +$34 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $800 +$21 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $1,825 +$94 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $485 +$10 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $87 +$5 +5%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $510 −$324 -64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $315 −$307 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $9,744 −$90 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $1,090 −$198 -18%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $3,432 −$75 -2%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? May 25 $58 −$1 -2%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $2,231 +$169 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 20 $278 +$41 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? May 16 $385 +$39 +10%
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? May 16 $209 +$4 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $1,088 +$59 +6%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? May 15 $383 −$2 -0%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 15 $79 +$12 +15%
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? May 15 $719 +$12 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $4,152 +$435 +10%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $712 +$43 +6%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 14 $93 +$7 +8%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? May 12 $1,108 +$121 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $2,936 −$973 -33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $11,927 −$5,577 -47%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 08 $340 +$34 +10%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 08 $191 −$191 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 06 $2,750 −$2,750 -100%
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? May 05 $182 +$22 +12%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $2,645 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? May 04 $645 +$37 +6%
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? May 03 $2 +$5 +206%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? May 03 $91 +$2 +2%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 03 $2,072 +$165 +8%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 03 $359 +$159 +44%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 03 $164 +$36 +22%
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? May 02 $417 +$7 +2%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in April? May 01 $3 +$6 +192%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - European Pro Leagu May 01 $4 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $229 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $994 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $496 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $496 24h
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY No 92¢ $92 41h
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY No 96¢ $81 45h
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $202 2d
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $269 2d
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 93¢ $186 2d
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 96¢ $86 2d
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $83 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $453 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $559 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,015 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $180 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $295 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $186 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $3,432 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $22 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $490 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $385 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,421.22 · official $15,420.55 (match) · 3500 history records