trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$2 | -39% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$4 | +35% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -41.5% | -47.1% | 20% | 20% | -47.4% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -59.7% | -63.6% | 20% | 10% | -65.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -59.7% | -63.6% | 20% | 10% | -65.7% |
| all | 10 | -59.7% | -63.6% | 20% | 10% | -65.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -63.6% | 10% | -65.7% |
| 10% | -67.1% | 10% | -69.0% |
| 15% | -70.2% | 0% | -72.0% |
| 20% | -73.2% | 0% | -74.7% |