trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 18 | -11.0% | -19.5% | 72% | 17% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 75% | 20% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 75% | 20% | -9.2% |
| all | 20 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 75% | 20% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.7% | 20% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -23.8% | 5% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -31.1% | 5% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 5% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $71 | $71 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $9 | $9 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | No | 29¢ | 39¢ | $5 | $7 | +$2 (+34%) |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? | Jun 20 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Jun 20 | $87 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | Jun 20 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? | Jun 19 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world | Jun 19 | $4 | −$4 | -94% |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Jun 19 | $5 | −$4 | -77% |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | Jun 18 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | +15% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $6 | +$1 | +12% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $13 | +$2 | +16% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $110 | +$3 | +3% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $28 | +$3 | +9% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 15 | $63 | +$1 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 15 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | Jun 15 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 | Jun 11 | $5 | +$3 | +57% |