Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90f9…1a71 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$13
other 3% −$11
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.0% -19.5% 72% 17% -9.9%
≤30d 20 -6.8% -15.7% 75% 20% -9.2%
≤90d 20 -6.8% -15.7% 75% 20% -9.2%
all 20 -6.8% -15.7% 75% 20% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 20% -9.2%
10% -23.8% 5% -17.9%
15% -31.1% 5% -25.8%
20% -37.9% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage11d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 39¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 +$2 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $110 +$3 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 +$3 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 19h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 36h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 39h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $67 39h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $4 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 39h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 40h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 42h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 42h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 44h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes $1 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.78 · official $197.78 (match) · 99 history records