Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9103…804f sports 1357 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1333W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$135
weather 18% +$12
other 17% +$11
finance 2% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 202 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1356 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 1356 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1333 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1356 / 1357
History coverage89d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $50 8h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 100¢ $39 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 100¢ $11 13h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 21h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $7 21h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 100¢ $50 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 4d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY TYLOO 100¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 2800 history records