Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9107…b6e0 crypto 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$858 (-3%) realized −$858 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%197W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$104
14 days−$42
30 days−$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,072
weather 7% −$201
sports 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.3% -15.3% 85% 31% -18.5%
≤30d 202 -6.7% -15.6% 67% 41% -12.0%
≤90d 295 -4.9% -14.0% 67% 48% -13.4%
all 295 -4.9% -14.0% 67% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 48% -13.4%
10% -22.2% 36% -21.7%
15% -29.7% 26% -29.2%
20% -36.6% 19% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$72 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$858
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses197 / 98
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)295 / 295
History coverage52d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 295 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $146 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$4 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$51 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $148 −$147 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$34 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$8 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$43 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$25 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$51 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$78 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$15 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$14 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$89 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$16 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $81 +$10 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$18 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$17 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$44 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$41 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$49 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$87 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$23 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $67 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1053 history records