Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$4

30 days−$4

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	59¢	100¢	$1	$2	+$1 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	80¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 12	$2	$0	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 12	$1	$0	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 12	$1	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 03	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 03	$5	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

crypto 100% −$4

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	58¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$4	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-23.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.3%	-9.3%	75%	50%	-9.6%
≤30d	6	-15.8%	-23.9%	67%	33%	-36.3%
≤90d	6	-15.8%	-23.9%	67%	33%	-36.3%
all	6	-15.8%	-23.9%	67%	33%	-36.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.9%	33%	-36.3%
10%	-31.1%	33%	-42.4%
15%	-37.8%	33%	-48.0%
20%	-43.9%	0%	-53.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.