Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9112…49f2 crypto 326 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-6%) realized −$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%217W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$459
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -1.7% -11.1% 81% 80% -12.1%
≤30d 326 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 65% -16.0%
≤90d 326 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 65% -16.0%
all 326 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 65% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 65% -16.0%
10% -16.3% 41% -24.1%
15% -24.4% 29% -31.4%
20% -31.8% 28% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses217 / 109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)326 / 326
History coverage24d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 326 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$17 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$17 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $24 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $24 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $23 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $23 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 625 history records