Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9115…cc1c world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1
other 19% −$1
crypto 8% $0
politics 4% +$1
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 0% -9.3%
all 34 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage401d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $78 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 31 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 24 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 16 $22 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $9 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $28 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $9 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.41 · official $38.41 (match) · 139 history records