Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
91 0x9119…6561 crypto 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,673 (-9%) realized −$1,673 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%76W / 104L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$150
14 days+$150
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,941
world 2% −$15
other 2% −$187
sports 1% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -12.1% -20.5% 37% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 52 -12.1% -20.5% 37% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 179 -7.4% -16.2% 42% 37% -20.0%
all 180 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 37% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 37% -19.7%
10% -24.1% 34% -27.4%
15% -31.4% 31% -34.4%
20% -38.1% 27% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$83 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,673
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses76 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage102d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$105 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $150 +$255 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$78 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$59 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $132 +$108 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$65 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$144 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$61 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$29 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$117 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$202 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $87 +$35 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$97 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$149 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$58 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$54 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $404 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $85 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $147 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $240 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $146 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records