Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x911b…344f other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,374 (+9%) realized +$10,527 · open −$153
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 38L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,449per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$594est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$5,716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,836
7 days+$3,676
14 days+$14,324
30 days+$9,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$3,743
sports 23% +$2,289
crypto 6% +$3,246
world 0% −$358
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 49% -1.7%
≤30d 77 +14.3% +3.4% 51% 51% -2.3%
≤90d 77 +14.3% +3.4% 51% 51% -2.3%
all 77 +14.3% +3.4% 51% 51% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 51% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 47% -11.7%
15% -15.5% 44% -20.2%
20% -23.8% 40% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,626) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,268 vs −$1,062 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$5,716
Realized+$10,527
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$594
Open positions7
Markets (closed)77 / 84
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,449
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1,826 $1,811 −$15 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 33¢ 32¢ $708 $698 −$11 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $629 $638 +$8 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $740 $622 −$118 (-16%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 28¢ 28¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $466 $449 −$17 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,154 −$1,132 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,515 +$576 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,565 +$1,474 +94%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 23 $499 +$464 +93%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $372 −$366 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,415 +$474 +34%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $898 −$863 -96%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,184 +$1,710 +144%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $487 +$707 +145%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,975 +$2,201 +55%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $407 −$400 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $899 −$57 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $367 −$358 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $969 −$603 -62%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $812 +$673 +83%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $365 +$466 +128%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,516 +$777 +51%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $720 −$651 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,323 +$1,685 +127%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $513 −$86 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,038 +$516 +17%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $438 +$903 +206%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $593 −$580 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,697 +$1,103 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,099 +$488 +16%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $654 −$641 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,415 +$1,130 +80%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $496 −$485 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,172 +$339 +29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $489 +$682 +139%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,481 −$1,460 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $510 −$21 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $709 −$18 -2%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $293 +$726 +247%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $659 +$622 +94%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,075 +$751 +70%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $817 +$1,093 +134%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,252 +$664 +53%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,537 +$3,603 +142%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,634 −$1,610 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,192 −$2,770 -66%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $645 −$643 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $541 −$530 -98%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $1,231 +$1,885 +153%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,055 +$904 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,497 +$3,340 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $380 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $836 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $1,154 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $131 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $435 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $511 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $911 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 91¢ $3,039 13h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $6 14h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $1,560 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $475 25h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $511 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $342 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 25h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $372 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,515 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,889 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,415 30h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $35 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $2,894 36h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $963 37h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $499 38h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $498 39h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $196 39h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $490 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $898 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,716.44 · official $5,716.62 (match) · 405 history records