Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x911b…3f34 crypto 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$278 (+2%) realized +$284 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%108W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$135
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$125
other 2% +$50
sports 1% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -8.2% -16.9% 51% 48% -11.2%
≤30d 208 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 49% -9.3%
≤90d 208 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 49% -9.3%
all 208 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 49% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 49% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 43% -17.9%
15% -29.7% 37% -25.9%
20% -36.6% 29% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$38 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses108 / 100
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage10d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +22%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $123 −$70 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$49 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$36 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $112 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$39 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $31 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $3.91 (match) · 507 history records