Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x911d…06db crypto 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$441 (-4%) realized −$437 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%98W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$88
14 days+$19
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$463
other 2% −$17
sports 1% +$75
world 1% −$123
tech 1% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +28.8% +16.5% 47% 47% +48.9%
≤30d 34 +8.9% -1.5% 38% 35% -17.1%
≤90d 67 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 36% -31.0%
all 218 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 42% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 42% -15.5%
10% -19.6% 35% -23.6%
15% -27.4% 27% -31.0%
20% -34.5% 20% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$26 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$437
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses98 / 120
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)218 / 228
History coverage140d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $35 +$53 +149%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$28 +550%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -57%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -27%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 +$19 +46%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $23 −$7 -32%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? May 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $55 −$53 -96%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 17 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 17 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 17 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 17 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 17 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 17 $26 +$21 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $77 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. BUY $10 4d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $5 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $60 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.33 · official $29.33 · 728 history records