Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9121…b48c
world · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage311d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $84 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 15 $47 $0 -1%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 12 $0 $0 -6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $83 −$1 -2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $1 +$3 +248%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 07 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% $0
politics 20% −$2
other 16% $0
culture 11% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $39 40m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $21 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $17 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $32 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $21 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $26 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $9 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $13 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $23 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $31 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $44 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $3 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $37 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +6.0% -4.1% 29% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -13.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -21.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -29.3% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records