Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9124…f819 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,880 (+5%) realized +$2,249 · open −$369
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,216per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$487est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,772
7 days+$10,503
14 days+$10,503
30 days+$2,084
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,821
other 3% −$117
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 60% +35.4%
≤30d 27 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 44% -4.4%
≤90d 27 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 44% -4.4%
all 27 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 44% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 44% -4.4%
10% -33.0% 44% -13.6%
15% -39.5% 41% -21.9%
20% -45.4% 30% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,748) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -46% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,422 vs −$999 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$2,249
Unrealized−$369
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$487
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1,216
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $108 +$12 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 36¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $356 +$458 +129%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $2,536 +$970 +38%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $735 +$273 +37%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,013 +$700 +69%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $759 −$743 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $608 −$600 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,718 +$856 +50%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $304 +$256 +84%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,748 +$476 +27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $8,670 +$8,258 +95%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $1,317 +$996 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1,942 −$1,903 -98%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $4,052 −$4,000 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $2,101 −$2,083 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1,055 −$1,041 -99%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $316 +$657 +208%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1,065 −$1,050 -99%
Liverpool Montevideo vs. Cerro Largo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $509 −$500 -98%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $1,840 +$1,842 +100%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $203 −$200 -98%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $254 −$250 -98%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1,365 +$1,322 +97%
FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $1,226 −$1,212 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $814 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $203 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $204 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $153 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $153 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3,506 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2,536 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,008 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $735 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,713 5h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 27¢ $759 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,013 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 6h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $304 6h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,574 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $560 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,718 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $304 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,224 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,748 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16,929 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $2,314 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3,601 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,028 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3,041 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 56¢ $1,317 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $512 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.20 · official $177.20 (match) · 78 history records