Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9125…d923 other 263 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 254L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$34
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$42
sports 26% −$30
crypto 7% −$9
economics 7% −$11
politics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 79 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 162 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage145d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $185 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $416 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 29 $171 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 29 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 29 $617 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 28 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $147 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 28 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 28 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 26 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 25 $383 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $417 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $311 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 5m
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 9h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 9h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 10h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 12h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 14h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $43 16h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $44 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 20h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 25h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 31h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 32h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 34h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 34h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 36h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 38h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 40h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 40h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 42h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $28 47h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $28 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1531 history records