Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9126…9e21 crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$573 (-16%) realized −$573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$181
14 days−$125
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$507
tech 6% −$134
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.1% -46.8% 50% 50% -87.2%
≤30d 10 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 50% -23.3%
≤90d 79 +7.0% -3.2% 51% 27% -27.3%
all 79 +7.0% -3.2% 51% 27% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 27% -27.3%
10% -12.4% 13% -34.2%
15% -20.9% 9% -40.6%
20% -28.6% 8% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage42d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $192 −$186 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $96 +$30 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $96 +$26 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $96 +$33 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $219 −$44 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $89 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $39 +$5 +13%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $76 −$74 -98%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 21 $136 −$60 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $92 +$37 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $167 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 20 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 20 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 18 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 18 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 18 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 18 $56 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 18 $87 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 18 $16 +$29 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 18? May 18 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 18 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 18 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 17 $49 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 17 $6 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $12 +$2 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17? May 17 $99 −$49 -49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16? May 15 $142 −$139 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $192 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $126 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 74¢ $96 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 77¢ $96 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $129 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 73¢ $96 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? SELL No 36¢ $45 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? BUY No 56¢ $75 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? SELL No 48¢ $75 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? BUY No 59¢ $99 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? SELL No 99¢ $53 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? BUY No 78¢ $42 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $42 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $42 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? SELL No 78¢ $43 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? BUY No 84¢ $47 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $47 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $46 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 95¢ $44 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 26d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY Yes 57¢ $76 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? SELL No 15¢ $76 32d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY No 26¢ $136 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? SELL No 100¢ $129 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records