Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x912a…0f92 crypto 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2792 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$176,742 (+855%) realized +$176,725 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%179W / 474L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2791.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,308
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2792 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 653 -31.2% -37.8% 27% 21% -21.1%
≤30d 653 -31.2% -37.8% 27% 21% -21.1%
≤90d 653 -31.2% -37.8% 27% 21% -21.1%
all 653 -31.2% -37.8% 27% 21% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2791.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 21% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 16% -28.6%
15% -49.1% 13% -35.5%
20% -54.1% 11% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$20 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,581
Realized+$176,725
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses179 / 474
Open positions36
Markets (closed)653 / 303
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2791.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 86¢ 80¢ $222 $205 −$17 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 83¢ 74¢ $72 $64 −$9 (-12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 86¢ 66¢ $47 $36 −$11 (-24%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 6¢ 20¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+243%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 11¢ 26¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+141%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 40¢ 47¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 44¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 77¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? No 17¢ 97¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+469%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 58¢ 49¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+166%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 53¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+294%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+135%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 20¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+107%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 452 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $237 +$70 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $124 +$123 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$132 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$33 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$15 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +132%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +89%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +335%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +400%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +355%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +1012%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +144%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +400%
Will Canada win the 2025 SailGP Championship Season 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +231%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $18 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $18 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $16 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $13 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $16 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $19 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,581.35 · official $1,555.56 · 3500 history records