Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x912c…aa92 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,158 (+16%) realized +$1,267 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$900
other 17% +$53
crypto 7% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.1% +8.6% 83% 83% +9.1%
≤30d 12 +20.1% +8.6% 83% 83% +9.1%
≤90d 12 +20.1% +8.6% 83% 83% +9.1%
all 12 +20.1% +8.6% 83% 83% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 83% +9.1%
10% -1.8% 75% -1.3%
15% -11.2% 50% -10.9%
20% -19.9% 42% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$350 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,591
Realized+$1,267
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 54¢ $800 $559 −$241 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $500 $557 +$57 (+11%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 96¢ $400 $476 +$76 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $402 +$96 +24%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $202 +$115 +57%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $504 +$163 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $404 −$400 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $303 −$300 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $101 +$84 +83%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $202 +$110 +55%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $605 +$249 +41%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $703 +$130 +18%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $606 +$319 +53%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $704 +$183 +26%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $707 +$370 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $504 46m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $402 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $302 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $402 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 20h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $303 21h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 22h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $504 24h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 41h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $202 41h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $605 42h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $303 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $303 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $703 47h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $704 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $707 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,591.41 · official $1,591.41 (match) · 27 history records