Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x912e…4966 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+6%) realized +$85 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -48.2% -53.1% 33% 33% -56.7%
≤30d 3 -48.2% -53.1% 33% 33% -56.7%
≤90d 3 -48.2% -53.1% 33% 33% -56.7%
all 3 -48.2% -53.1% 33% 33% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.1% 33% -56.7%
10% -57.6% 33% -60.9%
15% -61.7% 33% -64.6%
20% -65.5% 0% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$100 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Anna Siskova 40¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $99 −$98 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $128 −$103 -80%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $94 +$34 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 54¢ $99 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Anna Siskova 40¢ $52 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova SELL Darja Semenistaja 72¢ $373 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 46¢ $244 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini SELL Luisina Giovannini 7¢ $25 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Luisina Giovannini 34¢ $128 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $128 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 73¢ $94 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 8 history records