Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x9131…f583 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.2% +2.4% 55% 50% -9.1%
≤30d 22 +13.2% +2.4% 55% 50% -9.1%
≤90d 22 +13.2% +2.4% 55% 50% -9.1%
all 22 +13.2% +2.4% 55% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 50% -9.1%
10% -7.4% 45% -17.8%
15% -16.3% 36% -25.8%
20% -24.5% 36% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $121 +$20 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $71 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$23 +217%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$45 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET Jun 26 $79 −$31 -40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$24 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$49 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$9 +71%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$5 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $121 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $27 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $7 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records