Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
91 0x9136…eec3 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$596 (+18%) realized +$637 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$275
14 days+$275
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 61% +$298
other 21% +$12
sports 18% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.4% -7.4% 32% 32% +12.3%
≤30d 37 +2.4% -7.4% 32% 32% +12.3%
≤90d 38 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 32% -7.4%
all 39 +2.7% -7.1% 33% 33% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 33% +6.8%
10% -16.0% 33% -3.4%
15% -24.1% 33% -12.7%
20% -31.5% 31% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$26 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$637
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage102d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 16¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-51%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 12¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 −$40 -56%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $31 +$69 +227%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 −$57 -80%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $20 +$38 +186%
Sadio Mané: 1+ assists Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $71 +$48 +68%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 +$45 +437%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists Jun 15 $20 −$11 -55%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$13 -73%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$91 +179%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 +$57 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $71 +$73 +103%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 13 $10 +$40 +387%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $51 +$46 +91%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $71 +$70 +99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$38 +125%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$41 -57%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $71 +$102 +143%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 22 $840 −$228 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 09 $1,187 +$526 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $20 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes $10 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $31 15h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $71 17h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $100 18h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 20h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $20 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $21 20h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists SELL Yes $0 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $14 20h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $58 21h
Sadio Mané: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $20 23h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $20 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $71 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $119 46h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $55 46h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $10 46h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $10 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $71 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $10 2d
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists SELL Yes 16¢ $9 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 34¢ $19 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $19 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.17 · official $39.17 (match) · 105 history records