Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9138…148c sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+44%) realized +$53 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$29
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$30
sports 41% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.4% -46.1% 14% 14% -54.5%
≤30d 20 +54.7% +40.0% 20% 20% +39.4%
≤90d 20 +54.7% +40.0% 20% 20% +39.4%
all 20 +54.7% +40.0% 20% 20% +39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.0% 20% +39.4%
10% +26.6% 20% +26.0%
15% +14.4% 20% +13.9%
20% +3.2% 20% +2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +199% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$3 · ×7.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$10 +346%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +142%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -83%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +238%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$77 +1666%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $3 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 44h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.31 · official $36.40 (match) · 59 history records