Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9139…30a9 sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$20 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%73W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$61
14 days−$44
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$194
sports 36% −$138
politics 17% −$96
crypto 5% +$9
culture 3% −$3
tech 1% −$13
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.3% -2.0% 47% 40% +1.5%
≤30d 50 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 32% -14.8%
≤90d 157 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 38% -9.9%
all 180 -15.7% -23.7% 41% 37% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 37% -9.9%
10% -31.0% 35% -18.5%
15% -37.7% 31% -26.4%
20% -43.8% 28% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses73 / 107
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions17
Markets (closed)180 / 199
History coverage114d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 99¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-14%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+48%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 94¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+34%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$4 -46%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $52 −$1 -2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -21%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$28 +270%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $31 −$19 -60%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $62 −$9 -14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $202 +$50 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $159 −$5 -3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$17 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 16 $35 −$16 -46%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $15 +$9 +61%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $19 −$10 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$15 -72%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$18 -92%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$6 +67%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$1 -14%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $18 −$1 -5%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $44 −$6 -13%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $20 −$9 -42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 04 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $35 +$12 +34%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $15 −$3 -18%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $260 −$84 -32%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $40 +$24 +59%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $138 +$81 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 2h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 2h
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 63¢ $15 2h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $10 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 27h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $21 27h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 56¢ $27 27h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will United States win on BUY 33¢ $15 46h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 3d
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 60¢ $20 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 4d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.79 · official $380.33 (match) · 519 history records