Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x913d…02bf sports 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,313 (-12%) realized −$9,338 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate68%111W / 52L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$417est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$88
14 days−$6,519
30 days−$10,466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$10,051
other 0% −$96
crypto 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.6% -16.4% 65% 53% -19.1%
≤30d 139 -7.0% -15.9% 68% 53% -22.8%
≤90d 163 -6.1% -15.1% 68% 54% -21.8%
all 163 -6.1% -15.1% 68% 54% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 54% -21.8%
10% -23.2% 36% -29.3%
15% -30.6% 18% -36.1%
20% -37.4% 7% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$360 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$9,338
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses111 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$417
Open positions5
Markets (closed)163 / 168
History coverage32d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 77¢ 94¢ $79 $97 +$18 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 86¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+43%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Under 82¢ 91¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 53¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $102 +$10 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $85 +$17 +20%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $17 +$20 +120%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $18 −$1 -4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$5 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$7 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$26 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$11 +14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $69 +$8 +12%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,688 −$3,688 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $188 −$188 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $19 +$6 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$4 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,495 +$193 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,439 +$552 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,889 +$54 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $704 +$181 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $54 −$38 -72%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $771 −$771 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $83 +$20 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $38 +$16 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $448 +$43 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,167 +$278 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,096 +$71 +6%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $75 +$20 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,499 +$273 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $630 −$585 -93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $71 +$12 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $99 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $45 +$23 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,359 −$2,150 -49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,178 +$238 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $227 +$34 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,500 +$409 +27%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $167 +$60 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $118 +$50 +42%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $105 +$42 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $226 −$144 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $80 19m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $10 21m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 82¢ $15 22m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 41m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $112 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $12 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $102 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $75 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $14 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 87¢ $37 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $37 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $13 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 73¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $18 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $33 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $15 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $16 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $14 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $117 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $70 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.06 · official $141.50 · 460 history records