Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

91 0x913d…1508 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,027 (+22%) realized +$650 · open +$377

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +174% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +129% what you keep after slip

Net edge+129%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$156per market

Trades / day14.4pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$2,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$391

7 days−$549

14 days−$173

30 days−$173

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+148.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-50.2%	-55.0%	20%	20%	-84.9%
≤30d	21	+174.3%	+148.2%	43%	43%	-17.7%
≤90d	21	+174.3%	+148.2%	43%	43%	-17.7%
all	21	+174.3%	+148.2%	43%	43%	-17.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+148.2%	43%	-17.7%
10%	+124.5%	38%	-25.6%
15%	+102.8%	33%	-32.8%
20%	+82.9%	29%	-39.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +174% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +197% → late +154% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$113 vs −$99 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$2,328

Realized+$650

Unrealized+$377

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions9

Markets (closed)21 / 30

History coverage14d

Avg bet$156

Trades / day14.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	Yes	12¢	16¢	$657	$862	+$205 (+31%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	Yes	15¢	20¢	$417	$534	+$117 (+28%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$435	$437	+$2 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$180	$172	−$8 (-5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?	Yes	24¢	34¢	$57	$83	+$25 (+44%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	3¢	4¢	$55	$68	+$13 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Yes	4¢	8¢	$30	$54	+$24 (+79%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026?	Yes	12¢	11¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 18	$391	−$391	-100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$45	−$21	-47%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$26	−$6	-24%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$48	+$5	+11%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos	Jun 13	$149	−$136	-91%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 06	$16	−$16	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 06	$152	−$145	-96%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	Jun 06	$95	+$24	+25%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 06	$66	−$62	-94%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 06	$84	+$114	+136%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 06	$79	+$54	+68%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 06	$126	−$126	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 06	$26	+$10	+40%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$170	−$170	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 06	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 06	$32	−$32	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 06	$26	+$51	+196%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	Jun 06	$630	+$615	+98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 05	$76	−$74	-97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026?	Jun 05	$67	+$93	+138%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$253	+$49	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	16¢	$94	3m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	16¢	$106	4m
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$31	4m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	5m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	6m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	6m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	BUY Yes	19¢	$52	6m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	BUY Yes	17¢	$103	7m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	12¢	$52	7m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$52	7m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	8¢	$104	8m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	12¢	$104	8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$5	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$10	1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	SELL Yes	12¢	$15	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$28	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL Yes	16¢	$28	1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$7	22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$52	22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	11¢	$106	22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	10¢	$106	22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	BUY Yes	4¢	$32	22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	34¢	$8	47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	11¢	$97	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,327.94 · official $2,315.26 (match) · 215 history records