Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9140…f62c sports 234 markets active 13h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$268 (-9%) realized −$241 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%93W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$156
other 12% −$80
world 8% +$84
crypto 7% −$82
weather 3% −$34
politics 2% $0
culture 1% −$24
economics 1% −$16
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +11.0% +0.4% 46% 41% -10.4%
≤30d 202 -19.1% -26.8% 41% 30% -25.9%
≤90d 224 -16.7% -24.6% 42% 29% -18.2%
all 224 -16.7% -24.6% 42% 29% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 29% -18.2%
10% -31.8% 22% -26.1%
15% -38.4% 17% -33.2%
20% -44.4% 12% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$241
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses93 / 131
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions9
Markets (closed)224 / 234
History coverage72d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $19 $4 −$16 (-81%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 68¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 33¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 32¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum Jun 17 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -47%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $8 +$5 +56%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $24 −$8 -32%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $12 −$3 -29%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +45%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $11 +$11 +103%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $17 +$5 +29%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $11 +$31 +285%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $19 −$11 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $29 −$6 -19%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $41 +$7 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $10 +$36 +354%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $41 −$31 -75%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$12 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$6 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$9 -87%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $22 −$17 -79%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -27%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13h
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum SELL Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum SELL Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 65¢ $8 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 21h
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 21h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $10 21h
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum SELL Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 66¢ $5 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $17 21h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 21h
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 21h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $11 22h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $10 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 39h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.93 · official $15.08 (match) · 730 history records