Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
91 0x9142…b355 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$546 (-31%) realized −$581 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$390
crypto 27% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 10 +5.0% -5.0% 40% 40% -42.0%
≤90d 10 +5.0% -5.0% 40% 40% -42.0%
all 10 +5.0% -5.0% 40% 40% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 40% -42.0%
10% -14.1% 30% -47.6%
15% -22.4% 30% -52.6%
20% -30.0% 20% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$162 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$581
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $73 $108 +$35 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $245 +$46 +19%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $113 −$59 -53%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $68 +$236 +345%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$114 -56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $303 −$205 -68%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $83 +$108 +130%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 +$15 +49%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $63 −$61 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 33¢ $78 0m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 26¢ $32 15m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 20¢ $291 16m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 24¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? SELL Yes 7¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $226 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 99¢ $278 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $90 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 10d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $92 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 29¢ $191 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 13¢ $46 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $44 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $83 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.04 · official $108.04 (match) · 34 history records