Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
91 0x9146…2813 sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+8%) realized +$170 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%39W / 71L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$152
14 days−$203
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$390
other 45% −$43
crypto 1% +$5
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +30.5% +18.1% 64% 64% +16.3%
≤30d 110 +4.1% -5.8% 35% 35% +0.8%
≤90d 110 +4.1% -5.8% 35% 35% +0.8%
all 110 +4.1% -5.8% 35% 35% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 35% +0.8%
10% -14.8% 34% -8.8%
15% -23.0% 34% -17.6%
20% -30.6% 32% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$19 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses39 / 71
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)110 / 117
History coverage18d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $50 $128 +$78 (+155%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $70 $48 −$22 (-32%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 41¢ 42¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 26¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $30 +$29 +97%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $21 +$104 +509%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $36 +$32 +89%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $46 +$54 +119%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $22 +$18 +83%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $39 −$38 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$18 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$18 +119%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $125 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 100¢ $67 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 26h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 41¢ $36 26h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $31 26h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 16¢ $21 26h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $36 26h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 26h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $36 26h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $22 34h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $39 34h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $36 34h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.44 · official $311.85 (match) · 177 history records