Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x914b…b84a crypto 1789 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,912 (+2%) realized +$2,195 · open −$283
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%1029W / 662L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day105.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$10,652
sports 1% +$3,696
other 0% −$170
weather 0% −$43
world 0% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 19% -10.8%
≤30d 1687 +5.2% -4.8% 61% 60% +3.1%
≤90d 1691 +5.2% -4.8% 61% 60% +3.1%
all 1691 +5.2% -4.8% 61% 60% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 60% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 59% -6.8%
15% -22.3% 48% -15.8%
20% -29.9% 32% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$2,195
Unrealized−$283
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1029 / 662
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1691 / 1789
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day105.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-55%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $185 $22 −$163 (-88%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $35 $11 −$24 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $44 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $188 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $82 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $110 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $121 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $157 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $88 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $45 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $53 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $98 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $61 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $75 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $43 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $42 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $85 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $53 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $12 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.04 · official $87.04 (match) · 3500 history records