trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $632 | $0 | −$632 (-100%) |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $114 | $0 | −$114 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $21,184 | +$7,286 | +34% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | Dec 29 | $114 | −$114 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Dec 29 | $632 | −$632 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +34.4% | +21.6% | 100% | 100% | +21.6% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +34.4% | +21.6% | 100% | 100% | +21.6% |
| all | 3 | -55.2% | -59.5% | 33% | 33% | +17.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -59.5% | 33% | +17.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -63.3% | 33% | +6.2% |
| 15% | -66.9% | 0% | -4.0% |
| 20% | -70.1% | 0% | -13.4% |