Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9152…abfb crypto 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,317 (-16%) realized −$6,073 · open −$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%218W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$273
14 days−$273
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$7,322
sports 3% −$461
other 1% +$11
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -17.3% -25.2% 47% 44% -20.8%
≤30d 45 -14.7% -22.8% 49% 42% -21.0%
≤90d 331 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 44% -27.9%
all 455 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 45% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 45% -26.6%
10% -24.5% 40% -33.6%
15% -31.8% 36% -40.1%
20% -38.5% 32% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$78 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$6,073
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses218 / 237
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)455 / 462
History coverage115d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 4¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-91%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 33¢ 1¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-98%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 53¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$45 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $155 +$116 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $128 +$58 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $155 −$104 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $130 −$105 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $128 +$70 +54%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$58 +184%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $71 +$29 +41%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $40 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 −$25 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $78 −$69 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $57 +$66 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $83 +$83 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $68 −$61 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$45 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $155 −$152 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $253 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$82 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $124 −$22 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $87 +$40 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $67 +$31 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $65 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $62 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $67 −$61 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 18 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 18 $6 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $7 58m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 15¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $61 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $270 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.92 · official $8.16 · 1674 history records