Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9152…09a2 crypto 1112 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,393 (-10%) realized −$2,381 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%411W / 1027L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day69.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,421
7 days−$3,133
14 days−$2,975
30 days−$3,119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 376 -90.2% -91.2% 5% 5% -70.5%
≤30d 459 -74.0% -76.4% 12% 12% -41.5%
≤90d 1438 -22.6% -29.9% 29% 24% -21.6%
all 1438 -22.6% -29.9% 29% 24% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 24% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 21% -29.1%
15% -42.8% 17% -35.9%
20% -48.4% 15% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$2,381
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses411 / 1027
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1438 / 1112
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 51¢ 40¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $40 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $38 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $50 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $98 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.23 · official $88.23 (match) · 3500 history records