Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
91 0x9154…618e sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$238 (+21%) realized +$325 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$562
other 18% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +70.6% +54.3% 57% 57% +69.9%
≤30d 7 +70.6% +54.3% 57% 57% +69.9%
≤90d 7 +70.6% +54.3% 57% 57% +69.9%
all 7 +70.6% +54.3% 57% 57% +69.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.3% 57% +69.9%
10% +39.6% 57% +53.6%
15% +26.1% 57% +38.8%
20% +13.7% 57% +25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$67 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.42 per $1 lost it wins $4.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$325
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay leading at halftime? No 55¢ 66¢ $193 $231 +$38 (+19%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Heretics 58¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $225 +$331 +147%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $161 +$221 +137%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $142 +$231 +162%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$106 +291%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $31 −$13 -44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $174 −$171 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $56 22m
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $140 29m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 58¢ $127 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $555 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $381 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 41¢ $161 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $136 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $373 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $142 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $143 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $36 6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 24¢ $17 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $17 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $31 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $174 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.70 · official $230.70 (match) · 18 history records