Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

91 0x9154…c18c other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized +$51 · open −$55

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$50

7 days+$82

14 days+$68

30 days+$68

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+39.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+132.0%	+109.9%	50%	50%	+106.8%
≤30d	6	+54.6%	+39.9%	33%	33%	+68.7%
≤90d	6	+54.6%	+39.9%	33%	33%	+68.7%
all	6	+54.6%	+39.9%	33%	33%	+68.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.9%	33%	+68.7%
10%	+26.5%	33%	+52.5%
15%	+14.3%	33%	+37.8%
20%	+3.1%	33%	+24.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +86% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$12 · ×4.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$51

Unrealized−$55

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage10d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Paraguay to win the second half?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-47%)
Germany leading at halftime?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-97%
Japan leading at halftime?	Jun 29	$15	+$82	+533%
South Africa leading at halftime?	Jun 28	$23	−$22	-97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$16	+$32	+195%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$6	−$6	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Paraguay to win the second half?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	15m
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	3h
Japan leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	3h
Japan leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	72¢	$97	4h
Japan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	4h
South Africa leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	0¢	$7	25h
South Africa leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	0¢	$15	25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	75¢	$48	4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$6	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	14¢	$8	9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	5¢	$6	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.38 · official $5.22 (match) · 13 history records