Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9159…2dd9 other 85 markets active 1d ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$339 (+0%) realized +$342 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$834per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,185
politics 1% −$826
other 0% −$6
sports 0% −$9
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.8% -27.4% 10% 10% -16.5%
≤30d 20 -19.8% -27.4% 10% 10% -16.5%
≤90d 20 -19.8% -27.4% 10% 10% -16.5%
all 41 -18.7% -26.4% 32% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 7% -9.1%
10% -33.5% 2% -17.8%
15% -39.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -45.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$58 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized+$342
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions44
Markets (closed)41 / 85
History coverage587d
Avg bet$834
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 85¢ $45 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 32¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 90¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+18%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 42¢ 42¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 12¢ 12¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 39¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $14 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 15 $6 −$1 -13%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 15 $23 −$3 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 15 $22 −$1 -7%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? Dec 18 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 05 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? Nov 25 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 21 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 21 $600 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Nov 21 $26,445 +$288 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Nov 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Nov 20 $2,544 −$740 -29%
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November? Nov 13 $205 +$15 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 13 $26,215 +$1,100 +4%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Nov 12 $200 −$9 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? Nov 11 $8,654 +$431 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 11 $3,326 +$82 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? Nov 11 $500 +$26 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November? Nov 10 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $823 −$823 -100%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Nov 06 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 32h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 32h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $5 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $5 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $5 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $5 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $6 33h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $5 33h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $5 33h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $3 33h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $11 33h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 33h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $12 33h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 33h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $13 33h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 33h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 33h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $10 33h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 33h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 35h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 24¢ $5 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $13 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 43¢ $11 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.29 · official $357.30 (match) · 396 history records