Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x9163…2f74 sports 572 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (344 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,503 (+1%) realized +$1,515 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%563W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day344.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,399
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (344 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 564 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 564 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 564 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 564 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover344.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 0% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$102 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×14.87 per $1 lost it wins $14.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized+$1,515
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses563 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions8
Markets (closed)564 / 572
History coverage2d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day344.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $525 $527 +$3 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays winning after 5 innings? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $84 $85 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-49%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 99¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates winning after 5 innings? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals winning after 5 innings? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners winning after 5 innings? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $495 −$102 -21%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $209 +$2 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers winning after 5 innings? Jun 25 $109 +$1 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $1,715 +$17 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New Jun 24 $26 $0 +2%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To Jun 24 $314 +$8 +2%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 24 $133 +$1 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 24 $141 +$1 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 24 $220 +$4 +2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Chicago White Sox winning after 5 innings? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 5m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 79¢ $393 11m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 32m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 99¢ $500 32m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 99¢ $10 32m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 99¢ $10 32m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $84 33m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Tied after 5 innings? BUY No 99¢ $10 34m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $10 34m
Tampa Bay Rays winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 34m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $10 34m
Kansas City Royals winning after 5 innings? BUY No 99¢ $10 34m
Tampa Bay Rays winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 34m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $10 34m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 35m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $10 37m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $10 37m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $10 37m
Pittsburgh Pirates winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 37m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Tied after 5 innings? BUY No 99¢ $10 37m
Seattle Mariners winning after 5 innings? BUY No 99¢ $10 37m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $10 37m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY No 99¢ $10 37m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $495 39m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 39m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 39m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 46m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 47m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $6 48m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $178 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $829.15 · official $829.15 (match) · 1427 history records