Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x9167…c6ac sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9 (+14%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$9
other 33% +$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% +5.6%
≤30d 39 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% +5.6%
≤90d 39 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% +5.6%
all 42 +11.0% +0.4% 62% 62% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 62% +5.1%
10% -9.2% 52% -5.0%
15% -18.0% 43% -14.1%
20% -26.0% 26% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage203d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs GenOne 55¢ 94¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $1 $0 -22%
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $1 $0 +47%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +185%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $1 +$1 +118%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +155%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -69%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 02 $1 $0 -36%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 02 $1 $0 +15%
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? Dec 02 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY GenOne 55¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 46¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 60¢ $1 1h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL X-CAST 100¢ $1 5h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 67¢ $1 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $1 14h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 57¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 74¢ $1 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner SELL Fortress 53¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division SELL Fortress 59¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 44¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY Fortress 45¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 58¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 39h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 19¢ $1 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $1 46h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $2 46h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 26¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 25¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 80¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.92 · official $3.69 (match) · 91 history records