Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9167…ef27 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$16
other 24% −$17
sports 20% −$11
crypto 10% −$19
world 5% −$5
tech 5% −$2
finance 4% −$5
culture 3% −$3
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 59 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 111 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 141 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 126
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage102d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 97¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $47 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 19 $52 −$2 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 17 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $151 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $471 −$2 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $136 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $63 −$3 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $36 +$2 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $335 −$3 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $39 +$1 +2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $9 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $402 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $116 −$2 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $229 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $48 59m
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 22h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 23h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 28h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $50 29h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $52 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $56 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $0 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $24 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $33 42h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $46 43h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $46 47h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $43 47h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $60 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $24 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.60 · official $47.60 (match) · 467 history records