Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

91 0x916a…8836 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$28 (+20%) realized +$30 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+33.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+47.4%	+33.3%	67%	67%	+6.4%
≤30d	3	+47.4%	+33.3%	67%	67%	+6.4%
≤90d	3	+47.4%	+33.3%	67%	67%	+6.4%
all	3	+47.4%	+33.3%	67%	67%	+6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.3%	67%	+6.4%
10%	+20.6%	67%	-3.8%
15%	+8.9%	67%	-13.1%
20%	-1.8%	67%	-21.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$23 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized+$30

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$33	$31	−$2 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$61	−$23	-38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$26	+$33	+126%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$16	+$9	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	BUY Yes	8¢	$36	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL 9z	21¢	$37	22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY 9z	31¢	$61	22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	SELL FURIA	100¢	$59	22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	41¢	$26	23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	SELL 9z	100¢	$24	23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	BUY 9z	60¢	$16	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.94 · official $30.94 (match) · 7 history records