Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x916c…0399 world 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%26W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 25% $0
politics 12% −$1
sports 11% −$1
economics 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
finance 2% −$2
weather 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 33 -3.5% -12.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -2.1% -11.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 99 -2.6% -11.9% 26% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses26 / 73
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage468d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $39 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $74 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $110 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $119 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $11 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $74 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $25 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $75 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $80 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $75 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $37 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $30 −$2 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $63 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $87 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $9 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $133 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $48 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 38h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.48 · official $38.48 (match) · 364 history records