Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

91 0x916d…bf9a other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$489 (+32%) realized +$490 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%15W / 12L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit34%portable

Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$72

7 days+$476

14 days+$498

30 days+$473

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-14.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+51.2%	+36.8%	86%	86%	+42.2%
≤30d	27	-5.1%	-14.1%	56%	56%	+20.2%
≤90d	27	-5.1%	-14.1%	56%	56%	+20.2%
all	27	-5.1%	-14.1%	56%	56%	+20.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.1%	56%	+20.2%
10%	-22.3%	52%	+8.7%
15%	-29.8%	52%	-1.8%
20%	-36.7%	48%	-11.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late +22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$53 vs −$27 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$66

Realized+$490

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses15 / 12

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage14d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$32	$32	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$39	+$28	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$71	+70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$351	+$218	+62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$147	+$205	+140%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$43	+$26	+60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$28	+57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$26	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$39	+$28	+70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$79	+$60	+76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$44	−$44	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$37	+73%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$42	−$3	-7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$63	+$30	+48%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$33	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$35	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$39	22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$351	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$147	5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$43	7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$50	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$39	8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$79	9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$44	11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	11d
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	9¢	$2	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$26	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	47¢	$39	11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$42	11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$63	13d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?	BUY No	1¢	$10	13d
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?	BUY No	1¢	$10	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.33 · official $66.33 (match) · 49 history records