Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x916d…d990 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+4%) realized +$30 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$124
other 16% +$52
sports 5% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.0% -40.3% 47% 33% -19.6%
≤30d 15 -34.0% -40.3% 47% 33% -19.6%
≤90d 15 -34.0% -40.3% 47% 33% -19.6%
all 15 -34.0% -40.3% 47% 33% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 33% -19.6%
10% -46.0% 33% -27.3%
15% -51.2% 20% -34.3%
20% -56.0% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$38 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $129 +$33 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$103 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $61 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$20 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +4%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 −$22 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$46 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.77 · official $63.77 (match) · 48 history records