Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x9170…6ecf sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$130 (-8%) realized −$126 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$199
14 days+$199
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% +$142
sports 25% +$174
other 22% −$206
politics 15% −$115
economics 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +115.8% +95.2% 44% 44% +33.3%
≤30d 17 +106.7% +87.0% 41% 41% +23.1%
≤90d 25 +63.3% +47.8% 32% 32% -4.3%
all 47 +21.7% +10.1% 30% 28% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 28% -11.6%
10% -0.4% 26% -20.1%
15% -10.1% 23% -27.8%
20% -18.9% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$21 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage147d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$120 +1242%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 +$16 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$52 +248%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $21 +$35 +167%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$30 +156%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 +$99 +541%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $63 −$24 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3AM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $2 +$6 +317%
Will Pongsapak Laopakdee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $16 −$14 -88%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 04 $59 −$31 -52%
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? Apr 04 $51 −$36 -71%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Apr 04 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kla Tham Party (KT) finish in third place by number of seats in t Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in second place by number of seats in Feb 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in third place by number of seats in Feb 12 $17 −$12 -69%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $31 −$23 -74%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 07 $31 +$2 +5%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $40 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7AM ET Feb 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2PM ET Feb 04 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6AM ET Feb 03 $35 +$7 +19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 03 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3AM ET Feb 03 $111 +$143 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4AM ET Feb 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1AM ET Feb 03 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 03 $96 −$32 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $31 +$48 +154%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $65 +$16 +25%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $30 −$14 -46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? Jan 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislat Jan 22 $102 −$34 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $130 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 16h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $53 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $37 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 33h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 33h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 39h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 43h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 44h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 44h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 44h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $117 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $38 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 4d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 63d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.28 · official $59.28 (match) · 145 history records