Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9170…499a crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$210 (+0%) realized +$212 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,633per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$272
14 days−$87
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$261
sports 1% −$58
other 0% −$130
world 0% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.4% +18.9% 67% 67% +21.5%
≤30d 37 -6.3% -15.3% 22% 19% -9.4%
≤90d 37 -6.3% -15.3% 22% 19% -9.4%
all 37 -6.3% -15.3% 22% 19% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 19% -9.4%
10% -23.4% 19% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -30.8% 19% -26.0%
20% -37.6% 19% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,300) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$29 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage30d
Avg bet$2,633
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? Yes 46¢ 45¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $132 −$130 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $132 +$128 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $124 −$122 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $124 +$116 +93%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $122 +$123 +101%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $162 +$158 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$101 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $96 −$95 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -97%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? Jun 09 $7,390 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $10,920 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 8? Jun 07 $13,919 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7? Jun 07 $979 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $259 +$239 +92%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 6? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 6? Jun 06 $21,927 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $8 $0 -2%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,210 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5? Jun 04 $1,968 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $880 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,870 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 4? Jun 03 $6,690 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? Jun 02 $6,161 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $6,301 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31? Jun 01 $5,110 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? May 30 $2,300 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 30? May 30 $700 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 29 $4,216 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $155 +$139 +90%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 29 $1,500 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 28 $1,200 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 27 $1,801 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 46¢ $112 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $132 44h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $132 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $124 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $124 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $122 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $162 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $103 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $102 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $96 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $102 10d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 11d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 12d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $61 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.61 · official $107.61 (match) · 1162 history records