Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9176…5dc1 crypto 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$271 (+3%) realized +$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%295W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days−$317
14 days−$898
30 days−$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -11.3% -19.7% 60% 45% -13.2%
≤30d 311 -35.0% -41.2% 42% 37% -17.9%
≤90d 500 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 54% -10.5%
all 500 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 54% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 54% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 45% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 38% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses295 / 205
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage54d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $80 −$51 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $240 −$238 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $92 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$13 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$37 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $44 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$40 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $230 −$228 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $176 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $153 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $67 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $38 +$53 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $147 +$38 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$24 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $77 −$63 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $64 −$36 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $194 +$34 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $151 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $223 +$35 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $116 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$20 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$29 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $177 +$57 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $122 +$89 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $29 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$36 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $48 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $92 −$91 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $146 +$52 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $96 −$51 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $116 −$69 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $58 −$43 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $28 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $28 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $24 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1743 history records